BTC Bouncing Back

Bitcoin prices have staged a rebound through the middle of the week with the futures market tentatively back above the $91,750 level on Wednesday. The rally off the $80,195 lows comes amidst a fresh downturn in USD as traders refocus on elevated easing expectations ahead of the upcoming December FOMC. With USD now turning lower, BTC has the potential to see a fuller recovery midst the broader pick up in risk assets we’re seeing on Wednesday.

US Jobs Data on Watch

 Looking ahead today, traders will be watching the latest ADP jobs number with Wall Street looking for a 7k print, down from 42k prior. If such a drop is confirmed, this should further cement December easing expectations, leading BTC higher as USD selling deepens. With no NFP data scheduled now until after the FOMC this month, today’s ADP print takes on higher importance. If we see a downside surprise this should be firmly bullish for BTC, leading to heavier USD selling. On the other hand, an upside surprise today might cause some scaling back of easing projections, fuelling a sell off in BTC as USD rebounds.

Technical Views

BTC

Following a rebound off the $80,195 lows, BTC is now fighting to get back above the $91,750 level and bull channel lows. If successful, this will put focus on a furtehr recovery towards $100,195 next and the bigger $108,855 level above, in line with rising momentum studies readings. If we fail here, however, and turn lower again BT is at risk of a fresh test of YTD lows near-term.