BTC Still Struggling
Bitcoin prices remain weak on Thursday with the futures market still battling around the $91,750 level and channel lows. Continued outflows from BTC ETFs have kept Bitcoin anchored lower with institutional players pulling further capital from the crypto sphere amidst the current market rout. BTC futures are now down around 30% from the YTD highs seen earlier last month. A hawkish shift in the Fed outlook, which has caused weakness across the risk complex, has been particularly damaging for Bitcoin. Notably, treasury companies, which had been major buyers of BTC during the October rally, have ceased purchases in recent weeks with many selling their positions. Latest industry data shows that long-term holders of BTC have sold over 800k units of BTC in the last month.
Strategy Buys Again
However, there are still buyers with Michael Saylor’s Strategy fund seen scooping up more BTC into the lows. As the largest global holder of BTC a fresh purchases signals continued optimism in an eventual bullish reversal. However, near-term, the picture looks a little murkier on the back of recent hawkish Fed developments.
Hawkish Fed Developments
The FOMC minutes yesterday showed that there was plenty of resistance to a cut in October with many members expecting rates to remain on hold in December. With news now that the delayed October NFP and upcoming November NFP data won’t be released until after the December FOMC meeting, the likelihood of a cut in December has fallen even lower. While this narrative remains, BTC looks likely to stay weak near-term. Only a heavy downside surprise in the September NFP later today is likely to boost BTC but even that might prove a short-lived reaction.
Technical Views
BTC
For now, BTC is still holding at the $91,750 level and bull channel lows, where the symmetry swing also completes (equal move to the Jan-Apr correction). While this area holds, the chance of a recovery higher remains, with the $100k mark the initial hurdle for bulls to clear. If we break the channel, however, focus turns much lower to the $80,195 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.