Type:
Bearish Momentum

Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.2201
Pivot: 1.2109
Support: 1.1952

Preferred Case:
On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 1.2109 in line with the swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Once there is downside confirmation, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to intermediate support at 1.2063 where the swing low support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion , 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Should price break intermediate support structure, we would expect price to drop to the 1st support at 1.1952 where the swing low support and 100% fibonacci projection are.

Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may rise rise to the 1st resistance at 1.2201 where the overlap resistance is.

Fundamentals:
With inflation at 9.1 percent, the BoE raised the UK interest rate to 1.25 percent. Retail sales in the UK decreased by 4.7% year over year as a result of rising costs having an impact on consumer spending. This gives us a medium bearish bias towards the British Pound.