Bearish Drop

Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.2016
Pivot: 1.1894
Support: 1.1781

Preferred Case:
On the H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud and moving within the descending trend line , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 1.1894, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.1781, where the swing low is.

Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1.2016, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement .

The retail sales data (0.3%) was out today, which is higher than the expected and previous (-0.2%), which is a positive signal of economy, therefore we could expect the drop momentum decrease recently.