Asia stock market are poised for a mixed start after U.S. stock market slipped. The S&P 500 ended modestly lower after the release of a whistle-blower complaint central to the latest political drama and reports the U.S. is unlikely to extend a waiver allowing American firms to supply China’s Huawei Technologies.Yields on US 10-year Treasuries steady at 1.69%. Analyst bias The risk on sentiment was eased on Thursday when the focus goes back to the impeachment of Trump. A whistleblower complaint alleged Trump sought to enlist Ukraine to help his presidential campaign and then conspired with staff to cover it up. The risk of impeachment could be somewhat higher than what the market has initially thought, but modest losses in the U.S. stock market showed sentiment remained "stable." On the other side, trade front is more quietly positive after the spokesman of Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed ‘considerable’ purchases of US soybeans and pork ahead of the next round of talks. however, investors are more in a wait-and-see mode and market volatility could reduce before more details are released.
USDCHF | Bullish↑ | ★★☆
27 Sep: Same as JPY, CHF moved sideways on Thursday while market sentiment shifted between U.S. president impeachment concern and trade optimism. The mixed sentiment is likely to continue while the sentiment is tiled towards a risk-off bias. CHF has a calendar light day today and we will likely to see CHF to drift from market risk sentiment. We remain neutral or slightly bullish on CHF.
NZDUSD |Bullish↑ | ★☆☆
27 Sep: ANZ data release on NZ's consumer confidence showed that it is below it's historical average but did improve slightly in August. While we see that the Kiwi climbed a bit as RBNZ plays down QE talk and being "unlikely to need 'unconventional' monetary policy tools", At the start of the Asian trading session, we saw the gains being erased. This is probably due to the erratic behaviour of the US dollar given the many trade and political news having to do with the President Trump and his administration. We believe however that given the stability of the RBNZ, the strength of the Kiwi will still remain at least for now. We turn bullish on NZD.
USDCAD |Bearish ↓ | ★☆☆
27 Sep: The CAD weakened against the US Dollar over night. With no fresh news domestically, we look to the commodities market. Oil traders around the world are scrambling to avoid being involved in the latest round of US sanctions on a number Chinese tanker owning firms dealing with Iranian oil. US Secretary Pompeo mentioned on Twitter in a pledge that US would take action on any sanctionable Iranian oil transaction. This caused the price of oil to dip lower. This downward pressure on oil could very well also translate onto the CAD. We turn bearish on CAD.
USDNOK | Neutral | ★☆☆
27 Sep: The NOK strengthened against the US dollar over night. This was more due to the indecision coming from mixed sentiments on the USD. There are no new developments globally in the oil market. But domestically, later today we will be expecting the registered unemployment data. This would then help us conclude whether the labour market is really weakening or not. For now we remain neutral with a slight bearish bias.