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Daily Market Outlook, November 15, 2022
“Asian equity markets are mixed overnight, following a weak close on Wall Street snapping a three session winning streak. The stand out performer is the Hang Seng in Hong Kong which has now achieved a 25% gain from its lows, the easing in US/China relations and liquidity provision by Chinese authorities has significantly boosted sentiment in Hong Kong equities, however, data overnight from China came in weaker than expected with retail sales falling to 0.7% and industrial production also missing expectations, while Japan’s economy also confirmed broader economic concerns, with GDP contracting to 0.3% quarter over quarter. For the trading day ahead focus in the Eurozone will be on Q3 GDP data, markets expect a meager growth of 0.2% quarter over quarter. German ZEW investors survey is also released this morning and it is expected to remain at depressed levels, however, the recent pull back in wholesale gas prices may offer some glimmer of positivity, market watchers expect the print to show a small improvement from the prior months -59.2. Stateside focus is firmly on producer price inflation, markets are looking for some increase in inventory build up for vendors, as this is cleared by discounting, it is hoped this will feed into a reduction in price inflation. Fed member Harker is also set to speak this afternoon, after Fed Deputy Chair Brainards slightly more constructive comments regarding the rate path yesterday, traders will parse Harker’s comments for additional confirmation of a potential reduction in rate rises in coming meetings...”
Overnight Headlines
Dollar Rebounds As Fed Officials Say Hikes To Continue; Yen Slumps - RTRS
Asia Shares Mixed While Oil Falls On China Coronavirus Outlook - RTRS
Futures Rise After US Suffers First Decline In Three Sessions - CNBC
Oil Holds Losses With Demand Fears Overshadowing Tight Supply - BBG
Gold Steadies Near 3-Month High On Hopes Of Smaller Fed Hikes - RTRS
Crypto Lender BlockFi Warns It Has Significant Exposure To FTX - RTRS
Binance’s Billionaire CEO Casts Himself As Crypto’s New Saviour - BBG
SEC Chairman Gensler Met With FTX Head Months Before Collapse - FBN
Crypto-Market Turmoil Hints At Risks For Finance, Fed’s Barr Says - BBG
Most G-20 Leaders Agree To Condemn Russia For War In Ukraine - BBG
Biden Trade Chief Says Xi Meeting Sends Powerful Signal To World - BBG
Biden’s Student Debt Relief Plan Is Blocked Indefinitely By Court - BBG
ECB's Villeroy: Will Probably Keep Raising Rates Beyond 2% Level - RTRS
UK Chancellor Hunt Draws Up Windfall Tax On Electricity Generators - FT
UK PM Sunak Indicates Will Keep ‘Triple Lock’ On UK State Pension - BBG
UK Food Prices Outpace Inflation On Favourite Brands Study Finds - Times
China Injects Enough Cash In System To Help Snap Bond Slump - BBG
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3920
Technicals
Primary support is 3920
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3935 opens a test of 3900
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0250
Technicals
Primary support is 1.0250
Primary upside objective is 1.0466
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0410
Failure below 1.0270 opens a test of 1.02
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200 (407M), 1.0275-80 (291M)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.17
Technicals
Primary support is 1.17
Primary upside objective 1.20
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1865
Failure below 1.17 opens a test of 1.1650
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143.2
139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary resistance is 143.25
Primary downside objective is 136
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138
Acceptance above 142 opens a test of 143.10
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: USD/JPY: 139.00 (500M), 140.00 (743M), 141.50 (430M)
EUR/JPY: 142.20 (321M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650
.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is .6650
Primary upside objective is .6900
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775
Failure below .6620 opens a test of .6550
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800
Technicals
Intraday 157700 is primary support
Primary upside objective is 18325
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000
Failure below 15500 opens a test of 14400
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!