Daily Market Outlook, October 1, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Asian stocks declined alongside equity-index futures as the deadline to prevent a US government shutdown passed, disrupting one of the nation’s largest employers and risking delays in crucial economic data releasesl. The dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive day, while gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $3,875 per ounce. Asian markets dipped, with China and Hong Kong closed for a holiday. Treasuries remained largely unchanged, with the yield on the 10-year bond at 4.15%. The shutdown commenced as Congressional Democrats and President Donald Trump clashed over healthcare funding, with the president intensifying the situation by indicating that his administration might permanently dismiss “a lot” of federal workers during the shutdown. Investors are primarily focused on the shutdown, overshadowing the outlook for the largest global economy and threatening delays in important economic reports that influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rate cuts. This added uncertainty comes as the S&P 500, rebounding from lows in April, recorded its best September in over 15 years, driven by optimism regarding artificial intelligence and lower rates. The dollar index lingered near a one-week low as investors prepared for potential ramifications of the US government shutdown. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that approximately 750,000 employees will be furloughed, resulting in daily losses of $400 million in compensation. This situation may subsequently impact spending and harm the economy. Traders are worried that the shutdown could postpone the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled for Friday, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent economic data indicates that the labor market is slowing down, while inflation remains under control, albeit still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Initially, the August JOLTS report seemed to present a more balanced view of the situation; job openings increased to 7,227,000 from 7,181,000 in July, while layoffs decreased to 1,725,000 from a revised lower figure of 1,787,000 (originally 1,808,000). This appears to be a more favorable mix. Nevertheless, both figures remain at relatively poor levels. Job openings continue to trend downward and lag behind the quicker decline in hiring, which is of greater importance. Hiring fell to 5,126,000 from 5,240,000, reaching its lowest point since June 2024 (part of the minor labor slowdown that prompted the Fed to lower rates by 50 basis points last year). This pattern holds true for private hiring as well. Layoff numbers can fluctuate monthly, and the recent decrease was modest compared to an already high figure last month. They still align with the ongoing deteriorating trend. The quit rate also fell to 3,091,000 from a downwardly revised 3,166,000 (originally 3,208,000). This revision is concerning, as fewer people resign typically indicates that finding a new job is becoming more difficult. This series is closely monitored by the Fed, making these changes significant, especially if the government shutdown causes some temporary disruption by delaying the release of other public sector data (notably payroll information). This data reinforces the argument for a Fed rate cut in October.
Overnight Headlines
BoE Needs To Reduce Inflation Without Hitting Jobs, Rate-Setters Warn
US Government Shuts Down As Lawmakers Fail To Strike Funding Deal
Trump Trade Chief Greer Calls 55% China Tariffs A ‘Good Status Quo’
Trump Trade Chief Expects US To Ink More Deals During Asia Trip
Japan’s Manufacturer Sentiment Improves, Backing BoJ’s Hike Case
Gulf Sovereign Funds Defy Lower Oil Prices To Top Global Investment
Berkshire Hathaway Near $10B Deal For Occidental’s Petrochemical Unit
Nike Thumps Expectations Despite 31% Fall In Earnings
Meta Plans To Buy Chip Startup Rivos To Boost Semiconductor Efforts
US Auto Bankruptcies Show Rising Credit Pain In Low-Income Households
US Announces 'TrumpRx' Discounted Drug Sales Pfizer Programme
Taiwan Rejects US Demand For Half Of Chip Production Locally Made
Trump To Meet With Argentina’s Milei As Soy Sales Could Stymie $20B
Anderson Warns Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI Bet Echoes Dotcom Bubble
Gold Holds Ground Near Record As Traders Weigh Risk Of Shutdown
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1700-10 (4BLN), 1.1735 (413M), 1.1750 (2.6BLN), 1.1760 (1BLN)
1.1775 (906M), 1.1790-95 (813M), 1.1800 (1.9BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7825 (352M), 0.7975 (250M), 0.8000 (350M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9350-60 (330M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8695 (507M), 0.8780 (764M)
GBP/USD: 1.3600 (580M)
AUD/USD: 0.6600 (1.2BLN), 0.6610-20 (547M)
USD/JPY: 146.40-50 (2.4BLN), 147.50 (760M), 147.80-85 (361M), 148.00 (673M)
EUR/JPY: 175.00 (832M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 26/9/25
Speculators trim CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 15,347 contracts to 78,791
Speculators trim CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures net short position by 7,408 contracts to 270,759
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 24,817 contracts to 844,116
Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 16,670 contracts to 2,453,444
Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 20,454 contracts to 912,089
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 31,451 contracts to 443,946
Japanese yen net long position is 79,500 contracts
Euro net long position is 114,345 contracts
British pound net short position is -1,964 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -23,018 contracts
Bitcoin net long position is 79 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6440 Target 6666
Below 6600 Target 6500
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.1750 Target 1.15
Above 1.18 Target 1.1910
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.36 Target 1.30
Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.49 Target 1.45
Above 1.51 Target 1.54
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 3600 Target 3885
Below 3500 Target 3400
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 110k Target 118k
Below 109k Target 105k
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!