Soft Data Yesterday
The US Dollar is coming under fresh selling pressure midweek on the back of softer-than-forecast US data yesterday. Both PPI and retail sales undershot forecasts yesterday with retail sales also seen falling against the prior reading. The data comes amidst the recent dovish repricing in the Fed rates outlook on the back of mixed NFP data and some dovish Fed commentary last week. Indeed, pricing for a December rate cut has risen again since yesterday, now at 85% from 80% pre-data. With traders now widely expecting a further cut next month, USD is vulnerable to a deeper pullback near-term, particularly if we see any fresh data weakness.
More US Data on Watch Today
Looking ahead, today’s focus will be on weekly jobless claims (exp 226k vs 220k prior) and the Fed Beige Book. Within the Beige Book, traders will particularly be looking for any signs of labour market issues. Last week’s mixed NFP report will be the last one before the December FOMC, with the October and November readings due on the 16th. As such, traders will be closely watching any labour market readings they can. If we do see any signs of weakness today, this should see rate cut pricing rising again, putting USD in a vulnerable position into the Thanksgiving holiday.
Technical Views
DXY
The rally in DXY has stalled for now into the 100.39 level with price potentially forming a double top at the level. Focus now is on the 99.15 level, this will be the line in the sand near-term. While price holds above that level, a fresh breakout higher can still be seen. Back below that level, however, focus turns to deeper support at the 98.24 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.