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ECB minutes Showing Hawkish Risks Remain
After a choppy week, EURUSD is hovering around the week’s opening price as of writing. The latest ECB minutes released yesterday showed that the bank retains a willingness to tighten further if necessary, echoing comments we’ve heard from ECB members recently. ECB members agreed that they should remain vigilant around inflation risks moving forward and urged the need to avoid an unnecessary loosening of financial conditions. Essentially, the minutes showed the ECB pushing back against the growing market view that the bank is heading for rate cuts early next year.
Market Calling ECB’s Bluff
Lagarde was heard earlier this week warning that it was too early to declare victory on inflation, warning that further tightening might still be needed. However, with inflation down sharply at 2.6% last month from the peak of 10.6% last year, traders are betting that the ECB is done with tightening and headed for rate cuts early next year in line with a slowing economy.
US Data Due
Looking ahead, the next round of US PMI data due today will be key for EURUSD traders. Given the dovish Fed narrative which is enveloping markets, any fresh downside in today’s data should drive USD further lower, paving the way for higher prices in EURUSD.
Technical Views
EURUSD
The rally in EURUSD has stalled for now into a test of the 1.0937 level. Despite some initial selling, the dip found demand and price is now retesting the level. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher and a breakout above the 1.0937 level targeting a move up to 1.1126 next. To the downside, 1.0785 remains the key support to note.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.