The EUR/USD pair edged higher towards the 1.0750 mark during Tuesday’s New York trading session. This upward movement was fueled by lackluster growth in US Retail Sales figures for May, which in turn put downward pressure on the greenback. According to the US Census Bureau, Retail Sales—a crucial indicator of consumer spending—edged up by a mere 0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% increase:

The disappointing Retail Sales data has heightened speculation that the US Dollar could face further weakness. Investors are increasingly confident that the trend of disinflation will persist, leading to expectations that the Fed might slash interest rates twice this year. The report spurred a notable shift in interest rate derivatives, now pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts commencing at the September Fed meeting, with additional reductions potentially following in November or December.

Despite market speculation, Fed officials maintain a conservative stance, advocating for only one rate cut within the year. Recent comments from policymakers highlight the ongoing effort to achieve a 2% inflation target, bolstered by the softer-than-expected CPI report for May. While this CPI data provided some relief, Fed members stressed the necessity of sustained disinflation over several months before altering the policy direction.

Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker recently endorsed maintaining the current interest rate levels to exert downward pressure on inflation across various sectors, including housing and auto services. Harker suggested that a single rate cut might be on the horizon, contingent on his economic projections materializing.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Euro has been weighed down by political uncertainties following French President Emmanuel Macron's call for a snap election after his Centralist alliance was defeated by the National Rally in the European Parliament elections. Investors are apprehensive about the potential financial instability that an RN-led government could trigger in France, the EU’s second-largest economy.

Regarding monetary policy, ECB remains cautious, emphasizing the importance of keeping interest rates steady to prevent reigniting inflation. The ECB’s recent decision to cut the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points in June marked the first such move since 2019, addressing persistent price pressures exacerbated by the Covid pandemic. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reiterated the need to maintain current interest rates, stressing that a prolonged period of disinflation in the service sector is essential before any further policy easing.

In the UK, the Pound Sterling displayed a mixed performance against major currencies as the market awaited the May CPI data, due on Wednesday:

The report is expected to shed light on the BoE’s potential timeline for interest rate reductions. Projections suggest that headline inflation might have eased to the BoE’s 2% target, down from April’s 2.3%. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to slow to 3.5% from 3.9%.

Investors are particularly focused on service sector inflation, a significant contributor to the persistent inflationary pressures. Wage growth, a key driver of service sector inflation, has been robust, with Average Earnings excluding bonuses rising by 6.0% for the three months ending in April. This rate of wage increase remains significantly higher than the level required to bring core inflation down to the BoE’s target of 2%.