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EUR Rally Stalls
On the back of the post-FOMC rally we saw on Wednesday, EURUSD was driven further higher yesterday by the ECB. While the bank held rates unchanged and arguably made some dovish adjustments to the decision statement, Lagarde’s pushback against rate-cut calls and her insistence that rates would need to stay at current levels for some time ultimately saw EURUSD trading higher, amplified by USD weakness.
ECB/Fed Expectations
The pair is now stalled at the November highs and traders are caught between ECB and Fed expectations. Ahead of the ECB meeting traders had already moved to fully price in an ECB rate cut by April, fuelled by dovish comments from ECB’s Schnabel and the recent CPI drop. Ultimately, bears will likely look at Lagarde’s comments yesterday as a means of preventing EUR downside which might feed back into higher inflation. Consequently, the focus will remain on growth risks in the eurozone and incoming data. Should data continue to trend lower, EUR should start to head lower again as traders bring forward their ECB rate cut calls. Additionally, any further dovish ECB commentary will also weigh on the pair.
Technical Views
EURUSD
The rally in EURUSD has seen the market trading back up above the 1.0937 level but the rally has stalled for now into the 1.10 level November highs. With heavy bearish divergence in momentum studies, risks of a double top are growing if we slip back below 1.0937, putting focus on 1.0785 support again.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.