Kiwi Collapses

As we round out another week, we’re coming dangerously close to the end of the summer here in London. However, as the weather starts to cool down, action in the markets is certainly showing no signs of lowering the temperature. It’s been another interesting week across the board, with several key moves to note. However, chatting with traders ahead of the weekend, it seems the main move that is capturing attention is the rally in the US Dollar. In terms of specific pairs, in the G10 space it has been the almost 4% drop in NZD which has been the main attraction. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.

What Caused the Move?

NZ Growth Concerns

The week commenced with a .5% rate hike from the RBNZ, along with clear signals that the bank intends to tighten further in the coming months. With inflation still at elevated levels, both domestically and globally, the RBNZ cited the need to press ahead with aggressive tightening action in a bid to bring consumer prices back down to its 2%-3% target band. Despite the hawkishness on rates, the move saw NZD trading lower over the week as traders focused on diminished growth prospects as a result of the tightening. Additionally, the RBNZ’s warning over house prices was also received dimly by investors as governor Orr cautioned that the market was likely to undergo a further decline near term.

Hawkish Fed View

The drop in NZD this week was exacerbated by the fresh strength we’ve seen in USD. Despite a weaker inflation reading for July last week, traders this week have once again been mulling the prospect of a larger .75% hike in September. The July FOMC minutes saw the Fed acknowledging the downside risks to the economy while reaffirming its commitment to hiking rates with a view to taming excessive inflation.

Following on from the minutes, a raft of commentary from key Fed members later in the week reinforced the view that the Fed is likely to push ahead with a larger .75% hike in September. With the current USD rally putting further pressure on commodity prices, NZDUSD looks likely to remain pressured near term.

Technical Views


The reversal lower in NZDUSD this week has seen the market breaking back below the .6385 level as well as the rising trend line from YTD lows. With both MACD and RSI turning lower here, the focus now is on .6210 support. If this level gives way we can expect a continuation back towards the yearly lows at .6064. To the topside, .6385 is the key resistance to note.