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EUR Higher on Thursday
The Euro is catching a bid today on the back of comments from ECB’s Schnabel yesterday. Following on from the ECB holding rates unchanged this month, Schnabel warned that it is too early to call an end to ECB tightening altogether and said the bank would remain vigilant over the path of inflation. At the last meeting, ECB chief Lagarde herself warned over the residual inflationary risks facing the eurozone linked to higher energy prices and conflict in the Middle East.
Inflation Risks Remain
While Schnabel stated that the ECB is confident its current monetary policy will see inflation back to target by 2025 she warned that the “last mile” of that journey would be “more uncertain, slower and bumpier”. Commenting on energy prices in particular, Schnabel shared the bank’s projections that “should energy prices increase over coming months in line with historical mean” the bank expects around 1.9% to be contributed to overall eurozone inflation by summer 2024.
Two-Way Risks
Looking ahead, the bank is clearly focused on getting inflation back to target meaning there is plenty of two-way risk for EUR. If CPI continues to trend lower, EUR should remain pressured on bets the ECB will hold policy steady. However, if CPI start to creep higher again, rising rate-hike bets should drive fresh EUR buying.
Technical Views
EURUSD
Following some recent consolidation at the level, price is now turning higher once again off the 1.0515 level support. With momentum studies rising, the focus is on a further push higher and a test of the 1.0785 level next. This will be a key challenge for bulls with a break higher there opening the way for a further rally back towards 1.10.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.