JPMorgan EURUSD Trading Desk View

The price action in FX markets remains insightful, albeit challenging. Each time it seems we might revert to established ranges, uncertainty persists. Starting this week with cautious optimism, trade tensions linger despite last week's court ruling. Over the weekend, metal tariffs were increased, adding another layer of complexity, while progress toward a US-China deal appears increasingly fraught. This ongoing uncertainty, in my view, should gradually lead to dollar weakness, though not in a linear fashion, making trading conditions particularly difficult.

The focus this week will be on payroll data. The labor market has shown resilience, but recent claims data have raised concerns. Any signs of weakness here could significantly influence rate expectations, especially with Waller over the weekend still projecting potential rate cuts in the latter half of the year.

I remain committed to a core dollar short position. While last week was challenging, with many capitulating based on our flow data, the position is sized to allow flexibility and maintain optionality. My preferred longs remain the euro, yen, and CAD within G10 currencies, and HUF and CZK in EM currencies. However, I have reduced exposure to PLN following the weekend’s election results.

The euro experienced a volatile week, with price action broadly constructive. While navigating the daily fluctuations is taxing, the short-lived nature of spike lows reinforces my conviction for higher levels over time. It seems longer-term buyers on dips face a narrow window to act. The ECB meets this week, with a widely expected cut to 2%. The key focus will be on how forecasts evolve amidst prevailing uncertainty and how Lagarde addresses potential policy scenarios for the remainder of the year. Schnabel’s recent hawkish stance could suggest a shift toward this becoming the base case as rates near neutral levels.

In the US, data will heavily influence short-term price action. However, given the inherent noise, strength in the data may be dismissed as transient, while weakness could be viewed as more significant. The euro is approaching a key pivot around 1.1425 (rebound highs from late April and mid-May) and may eventually test the high of 1.1573. On the downside, strong support exists in the 1.1150/1.1200 range, with the 50-day moving average, which held last week, now at 1.1209.