Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs, SP500 Positioning & Key levels 25/09/24
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Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs, SP500 Positioning & Key levels
Here is a summary of the SP500 positioning and key levels determined by the Goldman Sachs Equities trading desk.
Summary:
1. CTA Corner: We have CTAs modeled long +$65bn of global equities (64th %tile) after selling $6bn of equities last week globally. We have this cohort as buyers in every scenario over the next week.
2. GS PB: The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate rose +1.99% between 9/13 and 9/19 (vs MSCI World TR +2.20%), driven by beta of +1.30% (from market exposure and market sensitivity combined) and alpha of +0.69% on the back of long side gains. The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate fell -0.73% during the same period, driven by beta of -1.43% (from market sensitivity), partially offset by alpha of +0.69% on the back of long side gains (link).
3. Buybacks: We estimate ~86% of SPX corporates are in blackout with ~96% in blackout by the end of the week.
CTA Corner
CTA Flows:
• Over the next 1 week…
o Flat tape: +$35bn to buy (+$5bn SPX to buy)
o Up tape: +$39bn to buy (+$4bn SPX to buy)
o Down tape: +$12bn to buy (+$4bn SPX to buy)
• Over the next 1 month…
o Flat tape: +$40bn to buy (+$2bn SPX to buy)
o Up tape: +$70bn to buy (+$3bn SPX to buy)
o Down tape: -$123bn to sell (-$34bn SPX to sell)
• Key pivot levels for SPX:
o Short term: 5559
o Med term: 5383
o Long term: 4949
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!