Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs #SP500 Positioning, Sentiment & Key Levels
Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs #SP500 Positioning, Sentiment & Key Levels
Update from Goldman Sachs on current positioning metrics.
1. CTA Corner: We have CTAs modelled long +$70bn of global equities (66th %tile) after selling $43bn of equities last week globally.
2. GS PB: The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate rose +0.42% between 9/6 and 9/12 (vs MSCI World TR +1.25%), driven by beta of +0.25% (from market exposure) and alpha of +0.18% on the back of long side gains. The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate2 fell -0.18% during the same period, driven almost entirely by alpha on the back of long side losses as beta finished ~flat .
3. Buybacks: Friday 9/13 marked the first day of blackout window for corporates. We estimate blackout will run through 10/25. As of today, we est. ~55% of corporates are in their closed period (link).
CTA Corner CTA Flows: • Over the next 1 week…
Flat tape: -$5bn to sell (+$1bn SPX to buy)
Up tape: +$3bn to buy (+$665m SPX to buy)
Down tape: -$30bn to sell (-$1.5bn SPX to sell) •
Over the next 1 month…
Flat tape: +$15bn to buy (+$3.5bn SPX to buy)
Up tape: +$66bn to buy (+$5bn SPX to buy)
Down tape: -$141bn to sell (-$36bn SPX to sell) •
Key pivot levels for SPX:
Short term: 5526
Med term: 5358
Long term: 4938
Charts in Focus
The GS Sentiment Indicator registered 0 last week – the lowest reading since October 2023. Reminder: The Sentiment Indicator (SI) is a measure of aggregate positioning and risk sentiment in the US equity market. The Sentiment Indicator tracks investor positioning across the more than 80% of the US equity market that is owned by institutional, retail and foreign investors
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!