Citi

EURUSD has bounced from strong support near the 1.2000 handle to end the session 0.5% stronger at 1.2060. Spot has held around here in Asia since Asia. CitiFX Strategy reiterates their structural bullishness in the pair, and notes that the latest decline in COVID cases should signal stronger upside ahead. CitiFX Technicals sentiment, looks for a potential run up towards the recent high at 1.2150.

AUD: pared losses related to China tensions, and closed NY around 0.7780. It has continued to hold around here in Asia since. CitiFX Technicals flags the pair has co day in addition to complete an inverted head and shoulders formation. The team sees a pivotal resistance range ahead at 0.7813-0.7826.

GBP: despite gains for the rest of the G10 complex was an outlier amidst Thursday’s price action, and depreciated -0.1% to 1.3895. The performance was likely a reflection back of an earlier MPC decision, in addition to Scottish elections. On the former, the BoE opted for a technical QE taper with to GBP3.4bn/wk per expectations. Forecast r positive with inflation expected to remain on target assuming market expectations of the Bank Rate at 0.3% in 2Q23 and 0.6% in 2Q24 hold. We remain biased to buying assets are under-owned against a backdrop of strong support from reopening timeline and value rotations.

JPMorgan

NFP will be the event of the day and after some decent profit taking from the HF sector with this data and seasonality in mind the market is certainly a lot cleaner, however the incredible RM streak of USD selling continues and there is a decent risk in the next few sessions USD bears, including myself, will have to stop back in. No strong view in sterling for now, RM were a notable seller yesterday (z-score of 2) snapping their recent run of purchases, BOE’s Broadbent and Haldane will be speaking at 12.15 BST, 1.3930/40 is initial resistance with 1.4000/10 above (0.8715/20, 0.8795 EURGBP) while 1.3835/40 is initial support with 1.3800/10 below (0.8615/20, 0.8580/90 EURGBP).

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