Citi

European Open

Easter holiday preparations frame a week, where markets trade on the heels of Sunday’s French Presidential election and updates from major central banks.

ECB’s meeting follows Eurozone ZEW data and last week’s relatively hawkish minutes, which skew risk both to the hawkish and to the dovish side this time around. Meanwhile, a hawkish decision is expected for NZD, alongside a 50bp hike for CAD, and rate decisions across EM will feature hikes for KRW and ILS, holds for TRY and HUF, and a cut (MLF) for CNY. Minutes will be in focus for RON and CLP, as inflation concerns grow locally and globally.

Central bankers will opine on recent decisions and data for EUR, CAD, USD, and JPY, as we wait for US CPI to solidify hawkish Fed expectations and UK CPI to test BoE’s dovish tilt. Inflation data also prints for JPY (PPI), SEK, NOK, CZK, RON, INR, ARS, INR, and CNY (Chinese CPI/PPI), with China’s data in particular focus, as lockdowns continue in China and spill over risk grows. China’s money supply and new yuan loans data will be worth watching. However, with select regional and global FX on holiday, participation around the updates may be light.

HIGHLIGHTS BY CURRENCY

G10

USD: Fed’s Bostic Makes Opening Remarks at Fed Listens Event at 14:30 BST. (April 11); Fed’s Bowman, Waller Give Remarks at Fed Listens Event at 14:30 BST. (April 11); Fed’s Evans Discusses Economy and Monetary Policy at 17:40 BST. (April 11); NFIB Small Business Optimism at 11:00 BST for March. (April 12); CPI YoY at 13:30 BST for March. (April 12); Fed’s Brainard Takes Part in Wall Street Journal Live Event at 17:10 BST. (April 12); Fed’s Barkin to Discuss the Economy at 23:45 BST. (April 12); Retail Sales Advance MoM at 13:30 BST for March. (April 14); Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims at 13:30 BST. (April 14); U. of Mich. Sentiment, 1 Yr and 5-10 Yr inflation at 15:00 BST for Apr P. (April 14); Fed’s Mester Discusses Workforce Development at 20:50 BST. (April 14); Fed’s Harker Discusses Economy and Job Market at 23:00 BST. (April 14); Empire Manufacturing at 13:30 BST for Apr. (April 15); Good Friday (not Fed Hol). (April 15)

EUR: France Presidential Elections. (April 10); France Trade Balance at 07:45 BST for Feb. (April 12); Germany ZEW Survey Expectations, Current Situation at 10:00 BST for Apr. (April 12); ZEW Survey Expectations at 10:00 BST for Apr. (April 12); Germany Current Account Balance for Feb. (April 12); Italy Industrial Production NSA YoY at 09:00 BST for Feb. (April 13); Industrial Production SA MoM at 10:00 BST for Feb. (April 13); ECB Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45 BST. (April 14); ECB President Christine Lagarde Holds Press Conference at 13:30 BST. (April 14); France Good Friday. (April 15); Germany Good Friday. (April 15)

JPY: BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech at the Branch Managers Meeting. (April 11); PPI YoY at 00:50 BST for March. (April 12); Core Machine Orders MoM at 00:50 BST for Feb. (April 13); BOJ Kuroda Speech at the 97th Trust Companies Assembly at 07:15 BST. (April 13)

GBP: Monthly GDP (MoM), IP and Trade Balance at 07:00 BST for Feb. (April 11); Jobs report at 07:00 BST for March. (April 12); CPI YoY at 07:00 BST for March. (April 13); Good Friday. (April 15)

CAD: Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Quarterly Monetary policy report at 15:00 BST. (April 13); Bank of Canada's Macklem Speaks to Reporters After Decision at 16:00 BST. (April 13); Good Friday. (April 15)

AUD: Westpac Consumer Conf Index at 01:30 BST for Apr. (April 13); Unemployment Rate at 02:30 BST for March. (April 14); Good Friday. (April 15)

NZD: RBNZ Official Cash Rate at 03:00 BST. (April 13); BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI at 23:30 BST for March. (April 13); Good Friday. (April 15)

SEK: PES weekly unemployment data at 11:00 BST. (April 11); Prospera Swedish Inflation Expectations Survey at 07:00 BST. (April 13); CPI YoY at 07:00 BST for March. (April 14); Good Friday. (April 15)

NOK: CPI YoY at 07:00 BST for March. (April 11); Maundy Thursday. (April 14); Good Friday. (April 15)

CHF: Good Friday. (April 15)