The markets’ focus next week should continue to remain on commodity prices, disruptions in trade and supply of commodities. The inflation they generate is difficult to manage by Central Banks of developed countries, as it can only be suppressed by destruction of consumer demand, which is fraught with even greater economic and political troubles.
A good part of the sanctions against the Russian Federation have already been introduced, so markets will scrutinize primary and secondary consequences of inflation, which should be traced in incoming economic reports. Among them are inflation in the US and UK for March (released on Tuesday and Wednesday), as well as retail sales in the US for March.
Markets will also assess rhetoric of central banks regarding near term evolution of inflation pressures to understand their response function. The RBNZ and The BOC will hold their meetings on Wednesday while the ECB will update their policy stance on Thursday. The RBNZ is expected to raise rates by 25 bp, the Bank of Canada by 50 bp, and the ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.