US Consumer Confidence Forecast to Fall Back

US consumer confidence for April is due later today and will be the key data focus over the day’s US session. Given the weaker than expected retail sales print for April, the market is looking for a decline from the prior month’s reading 121.7 to 119 this time around. In light of that poor retail sales result, this seems a feasible projection. Should the data confirm last month’s slump, or even fall below expectations, this would keep the current USD decline in play. However, give the relatively low bar being set by this forecast, should the data exceed expectations, this could help lift USD in the short term, especially give the lingering inflation expectations on the back of last month’s CPI beat.

Where to Trade US Consumer Confidence?

US10Y

The breakout above the corrective bear channel in the U1S 10YR Yield, failed to see follow through. The market was turned lower at a test of the 1.685 level. Price is now retesting the broken bear channel and the 1.584 level. With the MACD bearish and RSI around the midway point, a weak print today could see yields break lower, targeting a return to 1.424. On the other hand, a stronger than expected reading could see yields break higher towards the 1.685 level once again.

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