US GDP & Weekly Jobless Claims Due
The advance quarter-on-quarter USD GDP reading is due later today and will be the main data focus for the US session following the prior quarter’s 4.3% reading, the market is now looking for GDO to have expanded to 6.8% over the last quarter. With easing of restrictions over Q1 and with vaccination progress and fiscal stimulus having lifted sentiment and activity, there are upside risks in today’s data.
Similarly, the weekly jobless claims number is also expected to improve today from 547k last week to 545k. Again, with re-opening underway across America and with better optimism as a result of the ongoing vaccination effort, today’s reading could beat expectations. While the Fed was keen to stick to its message of caution regarding inflation, in acknowledging the improvement in the economy and the outlook, incoming positive data sets are likely to receive more attention and create more movement in the Dollar and USD-linked assets.
Where to Trade Today’s US Data?
The correction from the failed break above the bull channel top and bearish trend line from the 2018 highs has seen price reversing down to test the bull channel low, which held as support. Price has now moved back above the 108.39 level and while above here there is room for a continuation higher towards the 109.86 level and beyond.
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