US PPI Up Next

The big data focus for today’s US session is the July PPI release. On the back of recent data strength, there are clear upside risks into this release, which raise the potential for plenty of USD volatility. While the Fed has been keen to stick to its message of maintaining policy at current levels while the economic recovery continues, recent data has suggested that the recovery might be taking place at a quicker pace than the Fed projects. With this in mind, a strong result today will likely turn focus back to the issue of Fed tapering. The bumper jobs report for July has seen a steady uptick in USD buying which will likely be continued today if data outperforms expectations.

Where to Trade US PPI?

EURUSD

The recent sell off in EURUSD has seen price trading back down to test the 1.1703 lows. A spike in USD today, in response to better data, might price enough to see a break of the level, putting the focus on a test of 1.1612 next. To the topside bulls will need to see a break of the a.1840 level to alleviate near term bearish risks.