US CPI Up Next

The key data focus today will be the release of US CPI for April. The release is drawing plenty of attention given that headline inflation is expected to have grown just 0.2% last month, from the prior month’s 1.2% surge. There’s been lots of talk about inflation plateauing in the US and, if this is proven to be the case in today’s release, USD longs will likely be forced to rethink their position. Indeed, USD weakness into today’s data suggests there is room for a proper correction lower if such a slowdown was seen in April. More broadly speaking, risk assets and risk linked currencies should see better levels on the back of a soft CPI release though, if data comes in above expectations, we can expect a fresh leg higher in USD and risk assets to plunge further lower.

Where to Trade US CPI?

USDJPY

USDJPY has been on an almighty run this year. However, with the trend losing momentum over recent weakness and bearish divergence creeping in, we are certainly due a corrective move near term. If USD weakens on today’s data, bears can look for a break of the 128.50 level targeting 124.92 initially and 121.26 below that.