US futures and European stock indices sway near opening in the low-volume price action as Thanksgiving in the US sets a low level of participation and tepid tone to trading. SPX again run into roadblocks near the all-time high at 3650 market as holidays in the US ensured little force is left to break higher, however, buyers remain confident. The dollar index lost its support at 92 points.
Oil pulled lower on Thursday, apparently on a profit taking move, as RSI above 80 points on Wednesday indicated that the recent rally has matured for correction while coming US holidays was a good premise to take some respite:
Oil prices discounted the positive EIA update on the change in US commercial oil inventories (-1.7M barrels). No wonder, because the focus remains solely on the upcoming OPEC decision, which has long-lasting consequences for market balance. The holidays in America allows European markets to focus on domestic issues - in particular, how the ECB will act in December. Judging by the recent Euro rise and given the sharp shift in economic outlook for the first half of 2021it is unlikely that the ECB will float serious support measures. Most likely, the Central bank will expand the TLTRO program (discounted loans for banks with good credit portfolios), which is largely priced in by the market. The minutes of the last ECB meeting can be safely ignored, because forecasts have changed a lot since the officials' meeting, it is much more interesting to listen to the chief economist of Bank Lane who holds a speech today.
The Fed meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, showed that officials discussed an increase in QE as one of paths of the APP program can take. Again, these discussions were relevant prior to the vaccine news, which, as has been shown by the market reaction, was a surprise. Therefore, the Fed should take this info into account in its forecasts. In addition, the choice of Janet Yellen as the new head of the US Treasury increases the chances that the Central Bank's calls to increase government spending will finally be heeded.
The economic calendar today is not particularly eventful. It will be interesting to see how consumer confidence has changed in France and Germany, shattered by lockdowns. But the main focus will be on Lane's speech. EURUSD is expected to drop below 1.19 before resuming advance next week.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.