During Thursday's European trading session, the Pound Sterling displayed a cautious performance against the US Dollar, showing modest declines as market attention remained fixed on the eagerly awaited release of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for January. Investors are eagerly awaiting this crucial data, as it plays a significant role in shaping the stance of Federal Reserve policymakers on interest rates by providing insights into underlying inflation trends.

The GBP/USD pair was seen fluctuating within the range set during Wednesday's trading, reflecting the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the potential timing of adjustments to the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rates. The Pound Sterling appears to be in a state of indecision as BoE policymakers express hesitance towards implementing early rate cuts, concerned about the potential impact on inflation dynamics, particularly given recent developments.

However, from a technical point of view, GBP/USD failed to sustain pricing near the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel and bounced lower, validating the significance of the boundary as an important resistance area. In case of a breakout, the outlook for the pair still remains bearish, as the price will likely meet ever fiercer resistance near the medium-term downward resistance line, which is expected to pass roughly via the 1.27 level:

Recent economic discussions have highlighted the UK's persistent core inflation, driven by strong wage growth and elevated service inflation. However, there is some relief for households as annual shop price inflation dipped to 2.5% in February, its lowest level since March 2022, primarily due to sluggish growth in food prices. This decline serves as a mitigating factor against the backdrop of overall inflationary pressures.

Turning attention to the global economic landscape, market focus sharply shifts to the impending release of the US core PCE Price Index data for January. Expected to show a monthly increase of 0.4%, up from December's 0.2% rise, analysts anticipate a corresponding slowdown in annual underlying inflation to 2.8%. This data holds significance in shaping Federal Reserve policy discussions, especially given recent economic indicators.

Stronger-than-expected readings in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, along with a robust labor market report, have revived expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy stance. Federal funds rate futures suggest a consensus among markets for no change in the Fed policy rate in March, with an 85% probability of further stability in May. This cautious sentiment underscores market positioning ahead of the core PCE data release.

If the core PCE reading surpasses market expectations, affirming a pause in Fed policy adjustments in May, the US Dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, a softer-than-expected increase in the monthly core PCE figure is unlikely to revive expectations for a rate cut in May but could improve risk sentiment, potentially lifting EUR/USD as the US Dollar faces challenges.

The technical EURUSD picture suggests that the pair failed to remain above the short-term ascending line that guided the recovery of the pair and dipped lower, finding support at the horizontal 1.08 level. Basically, it means that the initial strong momentum that had been pushing the price higher since mid-February, has faded. The price may need to drift lower towards the 1.0750 zone to attract medium-term buyers that could initiate the rally, aiming for a retest of recent resistance at the 1.09 level and some more important targets, like 1.10: