The beginning of the week turned out to be quite calm and measured for FX space as investors are making necessary rotations before a number of central bank meetings next week, including the Fed. The focus this week will be on US inflation and retail sales for August due out on Tuesday and Thursday. Strong prints could propel development of expectations that the Fed will follow in the footsteps of the Bank of England and the ECB, announcing that it is ending extraordinary support for the economy.
The dollar index retests last week's high (92.86) after a two-day downward correction with mixed success. Among the major currency pairs, the dollar shows the greatest gains against the euro, franc and yen, that is, where low interest rates prevail. This may indicate that investors are buying dollars in advance, on expectations of higher government bond rates in the United States. It is easy to guess that such expectations may be tied to the Fed meeting next week. Weak performance of the US technological sector this week may become another signal that the market undergoes rotation from long-duration stocks to its primary substitutes - long-term bonds (mainly influenced by the Fed's QE).
Since the beginning of August, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has consistently set lows above the previous ones, which may indicate a predominance of expectations for higher rates. However, the weakening of the US fundamental component still serves as an effective counterbalance to these expectations - the yield struggles to rise above 1.4%:
European markets and futures for US indices hover in positive territory within 1%.
In addition to preparing for the Fed, investors may also be preoccupied with a follow-through of infrastructure spending story in the United States. The Democrats said they plan to find means for the package by hiking corporate tax from 21 to 26.5% and the tax on capital gains from 20 to 25%. That's less than what was proposed earlier this year, but the Senate's push for the bill could once again spoil the mood of the stock market, as was the case with the initial tax hike announcements earlier in the year.
The rebound of the European currency after the ECB meeting proved to be short-lived, since deeply negative rates allow the euro to maintain its status as a popular funding currency and, all other things being equal, increased demand for risk leads to a weakening of the euro. In addition, as mentioned above, expectations that the rate differential between bonds of European countries and the United States will widen after the Fed may now increase the supply of the euro.
Strong inflation and retail sales in August may increase the flow to dollars, as the chances of a hawkish shift in the Fed's position in this case will be higher, although the US Central Bank is now "a fan of employment data". According to the dollar index, one can count on a test of the area where resistance has been concentrated for the last month and a half - the level of 93.20: