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UK Jobs Market Weakens
The near-term outlook in the UK remains muddy on the back of the latest labour market data this morning. The unemployment rate was seen rising to 4.4% from 4.3% prior with the claimant count topping 50k, a sharp rise from the prior month’s 8.4k reading and the expected 10.2k reading the market was looking for. While the labour market was seen softening, wages growth remained firm at 5.9%, above an expected drop to 4.7%. The difficulty for the BOE is that the labour market is visibly weakening, while inflationary pressure remains in wages. As such, the scope for near-term easing is limited due to the risks of a rate-cut causing a fresh uptick in inflation.
BOE Rates in Focus
Near-term, the chances of BOE action look limited given the upcoming general election on July 4th. The BOE meeting at the end of June is therefore likely to see the bank outlining its near-term guidance on rates with a view to possibly setting up an August cut if we don’t see any material shift in market conditions ahead of that date. By that time too, we will have had a further CPI print which should confirm things one way or the other. If CPI is seen to have fallen further, this should all but guarantee an August cut, keeping GBP pressured ahead of the meeting.
Technical Views
GBPUSD
For now, GBPUSD remains capped by the 1.2832 level resistance and the bear trend line from 2023 highs. Momentum studies showed bearish divergence on the last push higher, suggesting room for a deeper correction. Below the current support (rising trend line), 1.2612 is the main structural support to note.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.