S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 25/8/26
S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 25/8/26
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.13 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.
GS Flow Desk: large S&P 31Aug 7000/7950 strangle in roughly $20mm vega / $115mm premium …My Read – classic “big convexity versus carry” trade: either someone paid a lot to own a wide August move, or someone got paid a lot to bet that the S&P stays comfortably inside the 7000–7950 corridor
JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950
DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7620/00
WEEKLY RANGE RES 7795/7806 SUP 7595/72
MONTHLY RANGE RES 7838 SUP 7258
DAILY VWAP BEARISH 7689
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 7634
MONTHLY VWAP BULLISH 7503
DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7686
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7838.5/7542.75
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7345.75
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7735/45
GAP FILL 7766.25
GAMMA FLIP 7665
DELTA FLIP 7710
TECHNICAL EQUALITY OBJECTIVE 7626
DAILY RANGE RES 7740 SUP 7607
2 SIGMA RES 7807 SUP 7541
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.9 (VVIX / VIX) 5.41
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM OF WBBZ TARGET RTH CLOSE 7609
***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
EQUITY & MACRO AFTERNOON BRIEFING Market Tone: Grind & Rotate | SPX -0.3% | NDX -1.0% | RTY -0.8% | 10Y 4.704% | VIX 15.85
JPM:THE TAKE: BREATHE EASY, THE TAPE IS HEALTHIER THAN THE INDEX
Headline tech pain is masking broad-based resilience. Despite another sharp -1.7% drag in High-Beta Momentum and heavy AI top-slicing, 60% of S&P 500 constituents finished in the green. A 3% plunge in oil (WTI back to $84.98) breathed fresh life into Banks, Retail, and Travel, while Software caught a bid.
Investors are effectively frozen in wait-and-see mode ahead of NVDA earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium. Yields curve-flattened modestly (30Y -4bps), with macro overhangs (US–Canada trade tensions, Middle East headline risk) acting as persistent speedbumps rather than panic triggers.
COMMODITIES & GEOPOLITICS
Energy Pullback: WTI (-238bps to $84.99) and Brent ($91.94) slid despite escalating Middle East headlines (Bessent teasing fresh US economic sanctions on Iran; Houthi strikes on a Saudi tanker off Yanbu). Market digested reports of 16M barrels flowing out of Hormuz over the weekend.
Gold ($4,653, +108bps): Risk-off bid remains firmly intact. Desk view: Trading in a $4,500–$5,000 range. A hot PCE print retests the 200DMA via rate-cut repricing; a cool print combined with dovish Jackson Hole messaging could trigger a run toward $5,000.
BUYSIDE BARS: KEY EARNINGS PREVIEWS
1. Nvidia (NVDA) | Reports Aug 26 AMC | Implied Move: 4.6%
Positioning Score:
3(Leaning Long)Buyside Bar: Q3 Revenue $94B–$95B (vs. Street consensus); Q4 Guide $107B–$108B (some whisper numbers pushing $110B+, though constrained by wafer availability).
The Setup: Sentiment has inflected positively with strong short covering. Bulls are focused on the GB300 rack ramp, Rubin Ultra visibility, pricing power, and massive backstopping revenue. Bears remain wary of "circular financing" and valuation multiples re-rating despite stellar supply chain execution.
2. Marvell Technology (MRVL) | Reports Aug 27 AMC | Implied Move: 8.8%
Positioning Score:
1(Neutral / Light)Buyside Bar: Q3 QoQ Revenue +15% (~39% YoY); Guide +12% QoQ (~50% YoY).
The Setup: Lightly positioned entering the print. The game-changing Google partnership expansion ($20B p.a. implied vs. $12B prior buyside baseline) isn't fully priced in yet. Custom ASIC (modeling >$4B in F28) and optical attach provide clear runway if execution holds.
3. Consumer Check: Dollar General (DG) & Dollar Tree (DLTR) | Weds BMO
DG: Mixed positioning. Buyside expects Comps ~3.0% (vs 2.6% consensus), a modest EPS beat flowing through to FY guidance ($7.10–$7.35), and a comp guide flex to the upper end.
DLTR: Skewed slightly long / HF interest. Looking for Comps ~4.0% (vs 2.6% consensus) driven by lower-income wallet resilience, with Q3 comp guidance set to 3-4%.
PORTFOLIO ACTION & TACTICAL SETUP
Tactical Bias: Tactically Bullish (Lower Conviction). Climbing a wall of worry into NVDA and Fed speak. A double disappointment could spark a 3%–4% SPX flush, but baseline setup favors support.
The Playbook (Monetization Menu):
Broaden the AI Barbell: Trim hyper-concentrated Semis/Memory; reallocate into Mag7 + Software.
Lean into Debasement & Cyclicals: Rotate cyclicals toward Financials, Energy, and Metals/Miners to catch the broadening tape and dollar debasement theme.
Hedge via Healthcare: Top sector pick to mitigate Midterm election seasonality while running a natural anti-momentum short.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!