S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 28/9/26

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7882 SUP 7490

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7690/80

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7926/16 SUP 7683/93

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7770/60

GLOBEX RANGE RES 7832/58 SUP 7779/53

GAMMA FLIP 7774

DELTA FLIP 7730

CALL WALLS 7831/7870

PUT WALLS 7750/7779

UNFILLED GAPS 7541

DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE 7848 - 7725

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - BALANCE 7848 - 7575

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7  

VVIX / VIX Today's ratio of 5.91 falls squarely within the 5.0 to 6.0 standard threshold. This implies that option traders are pricing in normal, baseline expectations for future equity swings relative to the volatility of the VIX itself

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM  DBBZ TARGET RTH CLOSE > DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.06 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed flat at 7,764.00 (+0.00%) | MOC $1.3B to BUY | VIX down -4.03% to 14.27 | Implied move through tomorrow: 40 bps

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 30,732.00 (+0.82%) | 4th straight winning session | First new record close since June, driven by Agentic AI and tech hardware momentum

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,896.00 (+0.72%) | Small-caps outperformed SPX as rate and oil volatility continued to ease

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 51,863.00 (-0.36%) | Dragged lower by financial and legacy consumer names

  • US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Closed at 4.9531% (+0.2 bps) | Holding steady near 4.95% as market digests Fed trajectory

  • WTI Crude: Closed at $94.59 (-1.24%) | 5th consecutive daily drop following headlines that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days

  • Gold: Closed at $4,362.00 (+0.44%) | Edged higher despite a firmer US Dollar Index (DXY 100.55)

  • Bitcoin: Closed at $86,270.00 (-0.82%) | Consolidating following recent upside push

  • Agentic AI & Consumer Inertia Disruption:

    • Market focus shifted to Agentic AI tools disintermediating services reliant on friction-heavy cancellation processes, contractual lock-ins, or customer behavioral inertia.

    • GS Short Consumer Inertia Basket (GSXUSWCH): Fell -2.58%, ranking among the most active thematic short baskets on the GS trading floor.

    • Key Basket Decliners: Planet Fitness (PLNT -9.45%), New York Times (NYT -7.16%), Charles Schwab (SCHW -6.11%), Allstate (ALL -5.55%), Intuit (INTU -3.87%).

  • Positioning & Institutional Flow Dynamics:

    • GS Desk Activity: Rated 3/10 activity level; finished -871 bps better for sale.

    • Asset Managers (LOs): Net sellers of -$857M (supply in Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, and Tech vs. demand in macro products and Materials).

    • Hedge Funds: Net sellers of -$953M (supply in Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and macro products vs. demand in Healthcare).

  • Derivatives & Volatility Insights:

    • NDX Volatility Lift: Fixed strike vols in NDX were bid in the belly and back-end of the curve as spot hit record highs, lifting implieds off summer floor levels.

    • SPX Surface & Skew: Fixed strike vols offered and skew crushed on flat SPX spot action.

    • VIX Optionality: Desk noted 20k buyers in both Oct 17 Straddles and Oct 18 Puts; desk highlights Oct 20 Calls for cheap upside convexity ahead of event catalysts.

    • Upcoming Event Catalysts: Meta Connect Developer Conference, McDonald's (MCD) Investor Day, Aurora (AUR) Investor Day.