SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 18/11/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6820/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6900/6610
DAILY VWAP BEARISH 6803
WEEKLY VWAP BEARISH 6801
NOV EOM STRADDLE 7054/6626
NOV MOPEX STRADDLE 6929/6399
DEC QOPEX STRADDLE 7054/6303
DAILY STRUCTURE – BALANCE - 6892/6746
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6640/30
DAILY RANGE RES 6754 SUP 6639
2 SIGMA RES 6813 SUP 6584
DAILY VWAP BEARISH 6760
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET 6692
LONG ON TEST/REJECT WEEKLY RANGE SUP TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES COLOR: PRE NVIDIA WOBBLE
S&P closed down -92bps at 6,672.41 with a MOC of +$3.4bn to BUY. NDX fell -83bps to 24,799, R2K dropped -196bps to 2,341, and the Dow declined -118bps to 46,590. Trading volume reached 18.9b shares across all US equity exchanges, surpassing the YTD daily average of 17.48b shares. VIX surged +12.9% to 22.38, WTI Crude dipped -58bps to $59.74, US 10YR yield declined -2bps to 4.13%, gold fell -96bps to $4,044, DXY rose +26bps to 99.55, and Bitcoin dropped -149bps to $92,030.
Markets had a choppy start to the week with limited headline catalysts ahead of a pivotal few days. Key updates on AI (NVDA), consumer trends (WMT, TGT, HD), and policy (FOMC minutes, Fed commentary, and NFP data) are expected. SPX recorded its third consecutive daily loss, with SPX, DOW, and NDX all breaching their 50-day moving averages. Defensive sectors stood out, with Large Cap names (e.g., GOOGL on Buffett’s add), healthcare, and utilities outperforming. The Mag 7 vs Non-Profitable Tech basket is on track for its best month since January 2025. Over 400 SPX names ended lower, while ETFs accounted for approximately 35% of the broader tape, signaling macro-driven activity.
Technically, SPX closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 138 trading sessions. Historical data suggests notable forward returns after similar streaks end (source: Ty Cullen Morgan). CTA levels based on E-minis are as follows: ST 6,727 | MT 6,447 | LT 5,995. This cohort is modeled to be net sellers of S&P across all scenarios over the next week and month, with supply increasing if the MT level is breached.
Looking ahead, two major focus points this week include September NFP (expected nonfarm payrolls +80k, unemployment rate at 4.3%) and NVDA’s earnings post-close on Wednesday (EPS estimate $1.259/sh). GIR commentary on NVDA highlights investor attention on (1) incremental updates to the $500bn Datacenter revenue forecast, (2) OpenAI deployment timing and revenue projections for CY26, and (3) Rubin ramp in CY26.
Flows: Activity levels ranked 4 on a 1-10 scale. The session closed +260bps better to buy, with LOs and HFs both finishing better to buy. LOs were notable net buyers in healthcare while selling tech, reflecting a clear thematic shift over the past week. HFs net bought macro products while selling select financials.
Derivatives: No specific headlines drove today’s decline, and flows remained subdued. Early in the session, hedging activity emerged with clients buying SPY put spreads out to December. Skew was heavily compressed at the open, and the term structure flattened even before the broader selloff. Volatility was bid throughout the day, particularly in front VIX futures. S&P cash broke through the 6,728 short-term CTA threshold, potentially unlocking ~$5B in equity supply over the next week if sustained. Tomorrow’s straddle priced at ~0.88% as market anxiety builds around NVDA earnings and upcoming economic data
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!