SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 30/9/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~61 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6650/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6720 SUP 6567
SEP EOM STRADDLE 178 POINTS - 6282/6638
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6689
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6630
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE 6756/6611
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6690
DAILY RANGE RES 6766 SUP 6651
2 SIGMA RES 6822 SUP 6593
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.5
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
### U.S. Equities Overview: Mundane Monday
Date: September 29, 2025
Time: 9:04 PM UTC
U.S. equity markets experienced a quiet start to the week, with most indices closing higher. The S&P 500 rose by 26 basis points, closing at 6,661, with a market on close (MOC) buy imbalance of $7.3 billion. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) increased by 44 basis points to 24,611, while the Russell 2000 (R2K) dipped slightly by 4 basis points to 2,435. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15 basis points to 46,316. Overall, 18 billion shares were traded across U.S. equity exchanges, compared to the year-to-date daily average of 16.8 billion shares.
Key market indicators included the VIX, which increased by 543 basis points to 16.12, and WTI Crude oil, which fell by 4% to $63.13. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.14%, while gold gained 136 basis points, reaching $3,860. The DXY dollar index decreased by 20 basis points to 97.95, and Bitcoin surged by 3% to $114,349.
### Market Dynamics
The market displayed a Growth over Value tilt, with a strong momentum shift, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector. Notable laggards included:
1. Low-Income Exposed Financials: The sector, represented by GSFINLOW, continued to underperform, exacerbated by recent trends in the automotive market.
2. Oil/Crude Prices: A 4% drop was attributed to OPEC+ producers signaling a potential production hike in November, countering October's planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day.
3. Travel-Related Stocks: Companies in this sector faced consolidation, with Carnival Corp (CCL) experiencing a significant drop from +5% to -3% despite reporting better-than-expected earnings.
Despite the significant MOC buy imbalance of $7.3 billion, concerns lingered regarding month-end supply dynamics.
### Government Shutdown Concerns
A potential government shutdown is not expected to have a substantial impact on the stock market; however, it could delay the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. If the shutdown occurs, the September employment report scheduled for October 3 may not be released as planned. The anticipated headline employment figure is +80,000, compared to a consensus of +50,000 and a prior figure of +22,000. Traders are particularly anxious about a reading exceeding 100,000, as this could reduce the likelihood of 25 basis point cuts by the Federal Reserve on October 29 and December 10, which is currently the base case scenario. A print in the 50,000 to 75,000 range is seen as favorable for stocks.
### Trading Activity
The trading floor reported an overall activity level of 4 on a scale of 1 to 10, finishing -28 basis points versus a 30-day average of -32 basis points. Long-only strategies finished flat, driven by supply in macro products, but offset by demand in discretionary, tech, and financial sectors. Hedge funds ended as net buyers, primarily in communication services, financials, and healthcare.
### Upcoming Earnings
Nike (NKE) is set to report earnings after the market close tomorrow, with options implying a ~7% move. Investors will be focused on revenue growth expectations and whether the anticipated improvements in second-half consensus numbers are justified. Despite some concerns over guidance, there remains more interest from investors on the long side compared to the short side at current levels.
### Derivatives Market
Volatility was bid across the surface today as the market anticipates updates regarding the potential government shutdown. Clients have shown increased interest in macro data, which is subject to potential delays. There was notable activity in VIX upside and SPY downside trades, with a general uptick in hedging interest as the market continues to rise. The straddle for the rest of the week was priced at approximately 1%.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!