The dollar is shrugging off a wave of shorts that led to decline of the US currency index from 94.00 to 93.50 area on Tuesday. The decline has been countered with vehement opposition of bulls as early as on the next day as the price swiftly rebounded to the 93.80 area on Wednesday. Considering short-term technical outlook, bearish USD bias can be mainly defined by a downtrend channel in which the price currently resides. A break through the upper bound (93.95) can be interpreted as an early flare of continuation of medium-term bullish USD trend which started in September. This will also mark a shift of the markets focus on medium-term outlook where the main theme is divergence of the Fed's policy with the monetary policy of other large Central Banks:

The UK inflation data upset the Cable big time, sowing doubts in FX market about early BoE tightening. Yearly inflation average to 2.9% in September, which is below the 3% forecast. With regard to expectations related to the tightening of the BoE policy, the miss in PPI (producer price index) was the primary cause of concern – MoM change was only 0.4% vs. forecast of 1%. Recall that BoE Baily explicitly said that costs and high energy prices are key risks for overshoot in inflation outlook and the BoE ‘may need to act’ to counter their effects. The BoE’s urgency to hike interest rates was a key theme that drove recent Pound gains and the latest inflation data suggests that traders could price in too much strength in the Cable. Consequently, there is a growing risk that the Central Bank may opt for to extend its wait-and-see stance exposing GBP to increased selling pressure especially against USD.

The markets’ focus related to US events is on the release of Beige Book data and speech of FOMC member Quarles. He usually takes a neutral stance in his rate and QE outlook. At this stage, the dollar has few catalysts to start an immediate growth, however, in the event of pickup of corrective sentiment in equity markets (which is unlikely, given that corporate reporting is generally upbeat), a breakthrough of 94.00 looks the most what USD can achieve in the near-term.