BTC Rallying on Monday

Bitcoin prices are pushing higher today, benefiting from the continues weakness in USD, as bulls try to get futures prices back above the $83,385 level following last week’s reversal. The market has been fairly resilient against the hawkish shift in Fed expectations in recent weeks with BTC correcting around just 8.5%. Hotter-than-forecast US inflation for September saw rate-hike pricing for both October and December jumping. Near-term tightening expectations have taken a dent following the AI stock-rout we’ve seen in recent days though pricing for December remains around 75%. As such, the fresh demand in BTC is encouraging for bulls and suggests that there is still plenty of expectation for a fresh bull phase given the solid move we saw off the YTD lows through the summer.

USD Flows Stay Key

Looking ahead, USD direction will remain key. If the greenback remains under pressure this week as a result of fresh AI selling, or geopolitical headlines, BTC should find fuel to push higher again. The latest industry data points to a surge in longer term holders buying up BTC though rolling 30-day demand (short term accounts) remains negative for now. This suggests that while long term holders remain bullish, the near-term picture is out of sync with this. If that metric turns bullish, this could signal the next upward move for BTC and so is worthwhile keeping an eye on.

Technical Views

BTC

For now, the market is trying to break back above the $83,385 level. This remains the key near-term pivot and while price holds below that level a further drop down to the $74,270 level is still a big risk. Back above there, however, and focus will turn back to a continuation higher and the $94,730 next.