Crude Drops As Trump Touts End to Iran War
Middle East Developments
Oil prices are falling sharply today as tensions cool in the Middle East following a concerning start to the week. Israel and Iran have ceded to Trump’s calls to end the attacks which rocked global markets on Sunday night. Missile exchanges between the two countries once again threatened the ceasefire, seeing crude prices spiking higher initially yesterday before calming as Trump called on both sides to back down. Confirmation form both sides that attacks have stopped has seen heavy selling in crude with futures now down around 6% from yesterday’s highs. Trump has once again been touting his view that the war is over saying that he expected a deal with Iran in the coming days and is prepared to make a deal regardless of support from Netanyahu. These comments have further strengthened the sell-off in crude with traders now once again optimistic that an end to the conflict can be brought about.
Chinese Imports Tank
Alongside news of the renewed ceasefire between Iran and Israel, oil prices have also come under pressure from the latest news out of China showing that crude imports fell heavily in April. Imports were down around 30% year-on-year, linked to Chinese refineries opting to draw down inventory rather than sourcing fresh oil as a result of higher prices imposed by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Looking ahead, crude price should remain skewed lower while traders await further details on US/Iran negotiations. Any positive headline should drive heavier selling while of course, any news of fresh attacks and a deterioration in peace-deal hopes will likely see crude spike again near-term.
Technical Views
Crude
Crude prices are now once again testing the triangle lows following the failure at the 95.06 level. With momentum studies bearish, focus is on a continuation lower near-term with 84.60 the next support to watch, ahead of the deeper 77.65 level.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.