Daily Market Outlook, February 11, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Asian markets continued their advance, printing records, while the Dollar took a hit ahead of Wednesday's much-anticipated US jobs report. Sluggish retail sales strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve might trim interest rates later this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.1%, setting a new record and widening its lead over European and US equities for the year. Emerging market indices joined the rally, reaching fresh highs as well. The optimism seemed contagious, spilling into Wall Street, where futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ticked higher. Meanwhile, European stocks appeared ready for a flat start to the day. Treasury futures gained momentum as 10-year bond yields dropped to their lowest in nearly a month during the US trading session. With Japan observing a holiday, there was no cash trading in Treasuries during Asian hours. Gold, often a beneficiary of rate cuts, rose 0.5%, fuelling mounting expectations of three rate reductions by the Fed this year—two of which are already priced in. The Dollar weakened against all major currencies in the Group of Ten. Tuesday’s surprisingly weak December retail sales painted a picture of slowing consumer activity as the year wrapped up, reinforcing speculation about potential rate cuts. All eyes now turn to upcoming jobs data and inflation figures later this week for more hints on the Fed's next moves. Meanwhile, investor sentiment remains cautious amid concerns over hefty AI investments by tech giants. The S&P 500 dipped 0.3% Tuesday due to losses in big-name tech stocks but stayed near last month’s peak. Silver enjoyed a strong rally, jumping over 1.6%, while Bitcoin took a sharp tumble, falling to around $67,500. This move comes as Bitcoin gained fresh support from major holders, as whale wallets accumulated 53,000 coins last week—their largest buying spree since November—stabilising prices after a very steep decline, despite limited broader investor activity.

US retail sales ended the year weak across all measures. December sales, including advanced, ex-autos, and ex-autos and gas, were flat m/m, missing the 0.4% median estimates. The control group fell -0.1% m/m against a 0.4% expected gain, while November sales growth was revised down slightly. Though y/y growth rates appear better, inflation-adjusted sales volumes remain stagnant, continuing a five-year trend. Retail sales as a share of PCE and GDP are shrinking, partly due to a shift toward services, driven by rising healthcare and insurance costs. Weakness in the housing market dampens furniture and building material sales. While it’s too early to confirm whether labour market softness is affecting consumer spending, affordability issues at the lower end of the market are becoming evident.

The delayed January non-farm payrolls report, releasing Wednesday, includes annual benchmark revisions and seasonal adjustment changes. Chair Powell indicated revisions may reduce monthly job figures by ~60k, suggesting weaker economic conditions overall. Healthcare and education may outperform other sectors, highlighting pronounced weakness in productive industries. Kevin Hassett flagged softer job numbers, alongside Challenger job cuts, weak ADP data, and a poor JOLTS report, all pointing to downside risks for the 68k NFP median. The participation rate's interaction with job creation will influence unemployment figures, but broader slack levels warrant attention. While unlikely to shift Powell's Fed stance, it raises stakes for Warsh's June policy meeting.

Overnight Headlines

• China’s Retreat From US Treasuries Flags Bigger Risks

• China CPI Rises Less Than Expected In Jan As PPI Deflation Persists

• BoJ’s $615B ETF Trove Under Lawmaker Scrutiny As Sales Continue

• RBA’s Hauser: Inflation ‘Too High,’ Cannot Let It Persist

• EU Parliament Reaches Deal On US Trade Pact

• US Weighs Seizing Tankers Carrying Iranian Oil To Pressure Tehran

• Netanyahu To Urge Trump Hard Stance With Tehran In DC Visit

• Zelenskyy Plans Spring Elections With Peace Deal Referendum

• Ford Sees Profit Rebounding After Surprise Year-End Tariff Bill

• Gilead’s 2026 Forecast Falls Short Of Wall Street’s Expectations

• Lyft Flags Surprise 2025 Loss, Weak Adj Core Profit Forecast

• Blackstone Joins Anthropic Round, Raising Stake To $1B

• Samsung To Unveil AI-Powered Galaxy S26 On Feb 25

• Robinhood Profit Slumps As Late-Year Crypto Slide Crimps Rev

• Moderna Flu Vaccine Application Rejected By FDA

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1780-90 (951M), 1.1800-10 (1.54BLN), 1.1815-25 (2.2BLN)

• 1.1850 (1.1BLN), 1.1875 (415M), 1.1900-10 (927M), 1.1950 (376M)

• 1.1980-85 (586M), 1.2000 (1.93BLN)

• USD/JPY: 153.95-05 (570M), 155.00-10 (282M), 156.00 (375M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7700 (200M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3570-75 (686M). EUR/GBP: 0.8650-70 (1.0BLN)

• AUD/USD: 0.6985-90 (820M), 0.7000-15 (1.03BLN)

• USD/CAD: 1.3500-10 (410M), 1.3700 (972M)

CFTC Positions as of February 7th:  

• Speculators are making moves in the Treasury futures market! In the latest update, they’ve ramped up their net short positions across several categories. For CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures, the net short position surged by 67,934 contracts, reaching a total of 2,158,980 contracts. Similarly, CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures saw an increase of 3,263 contracts, pushing the net short position to 729,414. The 2-year Treasury futures took an even bigger leap, with speculators adding 128,603 contracts to hit a new total of 1,347,602.There was a slight trimming in the UltraBond Treasury futures net short position, which dropped by 4,382 contracts to settle at 269,089. Meanwhile, CBOT US Treasury bonds futures saw a modest rise of 5,437 contracts, bringing the net short position to 13,604.

• Equity futures, speculators in equity funds boosted their net short positions on S&P 500 CME futures by 17,266 contracts, now totaling 437,953 contracts. However, equity fund managers showed a more bullish outlook, increasing their net long positions by 17,515 contracts to reach an impressive 927,508.

• In currencies and Bitcoin, the latest data shows Bitcoin holding steady with a net long position of 1,008 contracts. The Swiss franc posted a net short position of -40,717 contracts, while the British pound recorded a net short position of -13,911 contracts. The euro stood out with a strong net long position of 163,361 contracts. Finally, the Japanese yen showed a net short position of -19,222 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 6900 Target 7040

• Below 6890 Target 6840

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1860 Target 1.1960

• Below 1.1840 Target 1.1750

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760

• Below 1.3625 Target 1.35

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 154.35 Target 157.50

• Below 153.50 Target 151

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4900 Target 5340

• Below 4880 Target 4700

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 71k Target 75k

• Below 70k Target 53k