Daily Market Outlook, November 9, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, November 9, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Dip Buyers Rescue Tech Tape As Resilient US Jobs Keep Fed In Play
Global equities staged an aggressive relief rally on Monday morning as dip buyers stepped in to stem the bleeding from last week’s brutal technology rout. Asia-Pacific bourses led the charge following their steepest weekly liquidation in eighteen months, lifting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 1.9%. Taiwan’s Taiex surged 4.9%—rebounding from bear-market territory after authorities rolled out targeted market-stabilization measures—while Japan’s Nikkei 225 bounced 2.3%. S&P 500 futures added 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts shook off an early 1.0% drop triggered by reports of an espionage investigation involving Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to trade up 0.1%.
While the short-squeeze offers tactical respite after cumulative 16%+ drops in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, desks remain cautious. The market is still navigating a three-pronged overhang: technical multiple de-risking, AI datacenter capex payback skepticism, and prospective regulatory headwinds from a Democratic-controlled US Congress targeting power permitting and datacenter buildouts.
Fixed income markets softened as safe-haven bids unwound, lifting the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield 1 bp to 4.87%. The bond market's resilience is being capped by Friday's robust US October employment report. Non-farm payrolls expanded by a broad-based 165k (accompanied by +84k in net upward revisions), driven by professional and business services (+70k). The household survey was equally firm: employment surged by 463k, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.1% even as the participation rate expanded to 61.9%. With average hourly earnings printing hot at 0.4% m/m (3.12% y/y) and Atlanta Fed wage trackers signaling renewed pressure from job switchers, the real economy continues to present upside inflation risks for the Federal Reserve heading into December.
The macroeconomic spotlight shifts to Tuesday's US October CPI print, alongside Friday's PPI. Median consensus looks for consumer prices to rise 0.3% m/m with core at 0.2% m/m. Notably, the BLS will not publish year-on-year rates due to data collection voids during the October 2025 government shutdown—a technical quirk that masks what would otherwise be a sharp headline acceleration to ~4.0% y/y (from 3.7%) and core near ~2.8% y/y. Desks will therefore focus entirely on monthly run-rates and pipeline input pressures, with speeches from the Fed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Paulson, and John Williams closely scrutinized for December policy guidance.
In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks today following last week’s unanimous 25 bps hike to 4.0%. Focus centers on Thursday’s dense data dump—featuring Q3 GDP, monthly industrial production, and trade balances—which will reveal whether domestic resilience justifies market pricing for an immediate follow-up hike in December versus February. Across the channel, the Eurozone docket remains anchored by final October CPI prints and Q3 GDP, validating the ECB's baseline trajectory of a December 25 bps hike followed by an extended hold.
Energy markets remain the critical cross-asset pivot. Brent crude held steady near $99/bbl following last week's sharp decline from $115+ peaks. While sub-$100 oil removes an acute stagflationary tax, markets remain sensitive to post-midterm diplomatic negotiations surrounding Iran, where any escalation risks swiftly reviving energy-driven inflation breakevens.
Macro to Micro: Financial markets have launched a classic relief bounce after last week’s violent semiconductor liquidation, but underlying fundamentals offer little justification for an all-clear. Resilient US payrolls and wage pressures keep a December Fed hike firmly on the table ahead of Tuesday's monthly CPI print. For traders, the key focus centers on semiconductor follow-through in Taipei and Seoul, Treasury yield resistance near 4.90%, US CPI monthly run-rates, BoE post-hike guidance, and crude price action around the psychological $100/bbl threshold.
Overnight Headlines
China Extends Suspensions Of 24% Tariff On US Goods, Port Fees
RBA’s Hunter: AI Boom Could Increase Near-Term Inflation Pressures
Japan Says Three-Day Yen Intervention Lifted Yen In Summer
NZ’s National Party Poised To Retain Power Following Election
Trump: Further Iran Strikes Highly Unlikely If Negotiations Progress
Trump’s $1.5T Defence Budget Faces Opposition From Democrats
US And Iran Report Fresh Shipping Incidents Near Strait Of Hormuz
US Military Disables Cargo Vessel Over Alleged Iran Blockade Breach
Saudi Aramco Tower Targeted In Rare Strike On Riyadh Financial District
Russian Strikes Damage Kyiv Energy Infrastructure Ahead Of Peace Talks
EU Officials To Join Ukraine Peace Talks In Abu Dhabi, French FM Says
ECB Contender Klaas Knot Says He Would Act In A Debt Crisis
Germany Confirmed At AAA, Stable Trend, Morningstar DBRS
China's October PPI Quickens Further, CPI Edge Down
Power Restored To Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, IAEA Says
Nvidia Opens Investigation Into CEO’s Relationship With Alleged Chinese Spy
Berkshire Hathaway Accelerates Share Buybacks As Oper Profit Declines
Anthropic Secures $3.4B Gas-Fired Power Generation Deal For AI Data Centres
Japan’s Mitsui Chemicals And DBJ To Acquire JSR For $12B
ANZ Profit Beats Estimates As CEO Matos’s Restructuring Takes Hold
Technical & Trade Views
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!