Daily Market Outlook, October 9, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
The global stock rally showed no signs of slowing down, as a surge in demand for AI-focused companies gave Asian markets a solid boost. Meanwhile, gold and oil prices took a hit following a breakthrough peace agreement in the Middle East. MSCI’s global market index climbed for the ninth time in the past ten trading sessions, with Asian stocks advancing, driven by gains in tech giants like SoftBank. Japan’s stock market kept up its winning streak, while Hong Kong saw mixed results—HSBC shares dropped after announcing plans to privatise one of its banking divisions. Over in mainland China, markets reopened after the Golden Week holiday, with shares jumping 1.6%. Gold prices edged lower but remained above the $4,000 mark, as investors cashed in on recent gains and demand for safe-haven assets eased. Oil prices also slid following comments from former President Trump, who announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the initial phase of a peace plan. Futures for U.S. equity indices were steady, while European markets braced for a weaker opening. Asian markets mirrored Wall Street’s upward momentum, where major indices hit fresh record highs. Investors appeared unfazed by concerns over a potential bubble in prominent tech stocks, instead focusing on corporate resilience and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, with earnings season underway, this optimism faces a critical test. In geopolitical developments, Trump announced a breakthrough in U.S.- and Qatar-led negotiations between Israel and Hamas. According to him, both sides have agreed to release all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, marking a significant step toward ending their two-year-long conflict.
The September FOMC minutes revealed a nuanced view on monetary policy following a 25bps rate cut, supported by all but Miran. While Powell framed the cut as an insurance move, the minutes reflected reservations about inflation risks, particularly due to the impact of tariffs. Most members acknowledged a softening labour market but noted that migration restrictions were helping maintain low unemployment, with no significant declines in employment expected. Although policy remained mildly restrictive, there was no urgency to adjust rates further, and some members preferred to keep rates steady. Miran's dovish stance appeared out of step with the overall sentiment. Recent labour data indicates a weakening jobs trend, which could influence future policy more than the cautious concerns expressed in the minutes, suggesting a less hawkish outlook than initially interpreted.
The currency markets have been relatively steady as the U.S. dollar processes a robust 3.6% rise against the yen this week. Currently, the dollar is hovering around 152.50, after briefly touching 153.00 overnight. This level is nearing the point where Japan’s finance ministry typically voices concerns, though it's worth noting that an economist advising Japan's likely incoming prime minister recently highlighted the potential advantages of a weaker yen. Meanwhile, the euro is sitting at $1.1650, narrowly avoiding a dip below the $1.1600 support level following some disappointing industrial data from Germany. All eyes are now on French President Emmanuel Macron, as markets await his choice for a prime minister capable of navigating the tricky path to securing a budget agreement.
Cryptocurrency companies are in a heated race to launch tokens tied to the value of stocks, sparking concerns among traditional financial institutions and regulatory experts. These innovative but rapidly evolving products are raising red flags due to potential risks for investors and the stability of financial markets. Fuelled by President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto outlook and his administration’s efforts to promote favourable regulations, the crypto industry is seizing the moment. They aim to ride the wave of growing global excitement surrounding the sector, eager to make the most of this booming trend.
Today's calendar highlights: ECB September minutes; speeches from BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Villeroy, Escriva; Fed’s Powell (welcoming remarks only), Goolsbee, Bowman, Kashkari, and Barr.
Overnight Headlines
Trump Says ‘First Phase’ Of Gaza Peace Plan Has Been Signed
China Tightens Exports Of Some Rare Earths And Related Tech
BoJ Ex-Deputy Gov: Another Rate Hike This Year Will Be Difficult
Trsy Sec Bessent Grilled Fed Chair Candidates On Rates And QE
Fed Officials Flag Inflation Concerns As Rate Cuts Loom
US Approves Some Nvidia UAE Sales In Step Of AI Diplomacy
EU Unveils €1B AI Strategy To Compete With US And China
Emmanuel Macron To Appoint New French PM Within 48 Hours
BoE’s Greene Says CenBanks Should Learn About Supply Shocks
UK Treasury Bars Emergency Reserve Use For Pay Rises
UK RICS House Price Balance Improves Slightly In September
UK Sees Stronger Winter Energy Buffer Despite Gas Flow Limits
UK Food Industry Blames Govt For Rising Grocery Prices
Costco Reports Sales Growth In September And Early October
Netflix Expands Into Gaming Via TV Streaming Rollout
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1570-75 (749M), 1.1600 (1.11BLN), 1.1615 (2.1BLN)
1.1625-30 (345M), 1.1650 (549M), 1.1670-80 (1.5BLN)
1.1700-05 (581M), 1.1725 (473M), 1.1750 (295M), 1.1780 (300M)
USD/JPY: 150.00-05 (1.5BLN), 150.15-25 (1.32BLN), 150.50 (401M)
151.00 (579M), 152.00 (200M), 152.35-40 (624M), 152.50-60 (306M)
EUR/JPY: 174.25 (607M), 176.00 (200M), 176.25 (1.01BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7935 (250M), 0.7945-50 (400M), 0.7970-75 (725M)
0.7995 (200M): EUR/GBP: 0.8750 (262M)
GBP/USD: 1.3450 (570M), 1.3625 (250M), 1.3650 (438M)
AUD/USD: 0.6575 (576M), 0.6590-95 (657M)
USD/CAD: 1.3925-30 (421M), 1.4000 (210M), 1.4040 (280M)
EUR/SEK: 10.9150-9250 (200M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 3/10/25
Special Announcement. October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6440 Target 6800
Below 6700 Target 6630
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.1750 Target 1.1580
Above 1.1750 Target 1.1850
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.34 Target 1.3330
Above 1.35 Target 1.3580
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 150 Trgaet 148.5
Above 151 Target 154
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4000 Target 4120
Below 3850 Target 3770
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 122k Target 126k
Below 122k Target 120k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!