BOE Up Next
Today’s BOE rate decision will be the main focus for FX traders. On the back of the .5% hike from the Fed yesterday, some market participants are adjusting their views, anticipating a larger hike than the .25% consensus forecast. However, it is worth noting the differences between conditions for the Fed and the BOE, namely that the BOE has already hiked three times and so is less pressed to use a bigger .5% rate hike. Additionally, while the Fed hiked rates by .5%. this was the increase already priced in, with the Fed opting against going for a larger .75% hike. With this in mind, the base case scenario for a .25% hike today appears most likely. This is particularly true given the ongoing growth issues plaguing the UK outlook. Many fear that the current cost-of-living crisis in the UK, along with tighter monetary conditions, will drag growth down across the rest of the year. Consequently, the BOE is likely to want to avoid any steeper rate increases if possible.
Where to Trade Today’s BOE Meeting?
Given the recent hawkish shift at the RBA, GBPAUD looks a solid candidate for a deeper move lower should GBP sell-off on today’s BOE meeting. Price was recently rejected at the 1.7811 level (as per a recent market spotlight). With both MACD and RIS turning bearish here and with the retail market heavily long, bears can look for a break of the 1.7218 level for fresh shorts targeting a move down to 1.6726 next.