Three Key US Data Release to Watch

The key data focus for today’s US session will be the release of the US services and manufacturing PMIs as well as the latest consumer confidence update. Given the broad strength we have seen across recent indicators, the expectations today is that both services and manufacturing will improve to 52.9 and 55.9 respectively, from the prior 51.2 and 55.5 readings. However, consumer confidence is forecast to have taken a little knock with the market looking for the index to tick down to 109.9 from 113.8 prior.

Given that USD is looking a little sticky this week, it would likely take a strong upside beat across all three in order to drive a strong rally. Given that the expectations are so low in consumer confidence, this might be our best bet for looking for any USD upside. With risk assets under pressure today any support for USD might set the tone for the week.

Where to Trade Today’s US Data?

AUDUSD

Given the broadly risk off tone to markets today, any strength in USD in response to today’s data might see AUDUSD turning lower. To the downside, .7112 is the key level to watch with a break of that region opening the way for a fresh test of the .7243 level. However, if USD weakens today, recent price action still favours a topside move in AUDUSD with a break of .7243 opening the way for a run up to the .7339 level and bearish trend line next.