Type:
Bearish Momentum
Key Levels:
Resistance: 16.775
Pivot: 16.610
Support: 16.040
Preferred Case:
On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator and price breaking the ascending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 16.610 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance to the 1st support at 16.040 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and swing low support.
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 16.775 in line with the overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals:
Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for rice.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.