S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 12/11/26 

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7275/35

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7980 SUP 7361

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7300/7290

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7631/51 SUP 7170/50

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7560/70

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7611/7581  RES 7670/7000

GAMMA FLIP 7609

DELTA FLIP 7569

CALL WALLS 7654/7690

PUT WALLS 7600

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTF 7646

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7746

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - TBC

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.72  

VVIX-to-VIX ratio, currently hovering at approximately 5.17, comfortably falls within the historically typical range of 4.0 to 6.0. This suggests that volatility expectations are in a neutral zone, reflecting neither panic nor extreme contrarian sentiments.

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DBBZ TARGET RTH CLOSE>DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.08 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Upside cap (~7,920–7,950): Dealer gamma hedging at this call strike creates resistance, with market makers likely selling futures into strength and limiting volatility. Downside cushion (~7,270): If SPX drops 5% into Q4, long put gamma may force dealers to buy futures as the index falls, helping stabilize prices. Expiration: December 31, 2026. Strong pinning effects are likely near key strikes into year-end expiration.

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

NDX RECLAIMS 200-DMA AND PRE-ELECTION LEVELS AS VOL CURVE UN-INVERTS

With the US cash bond market closed for the Veterans Day holiday, US equities extended their recovery rally into constructive territory, led by mega-cap technology and retail favorites. The Nasdaq-100 surged +2.28% to 28,374, decisively reclaiming both its 200-day moving average and its pre-election levels. The S&P 500 gained +1.31% to close at 7,619 (recapturing its 100-day moving average), while retail engagement surged—sending the GS Retail Favorite basket up +4.95%, its third-best single-day performance in three years.


Desk commentary emphasizes that the market has transitioned from last week's acute panic to a clean positioning "blank slate." With election narratives largely digested, implied volatility resetting lower, and institutional consensus fractured across AI/semiconductor cycle duration, dispersion is accelerating beneath the surface. The options volatility term structure has fully un-inverted, compressing tomorrow’s implied S&P 500 straddle to just 57 bps.


CROSS-ASSET BENCHMARK DASHBOARD

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,619.00 (+1.31%) | MOC $165M to SELL | VIX dropped -9.92% to 17.53 | Next-day straddle: 57 bps

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 28,374.00 (+2.28%) | Reclaimed both its 200-DMA and pre-election highs

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,846.00 (+0.89%) | Moderate participation alongside broader beta recovery

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 52,486.00 (+0.48%) | Lagged tech-led upside rotation

  • Volume: 18.943B shares traded across US exchanges (vs. 18.561B YTD daily average)

  • WTI Crude: Up +42 bps to $86.40/bbl | Consolidating sub-$87

  • Gold: Down -1.19% to $3,984.00/oz | Breached $4,000 support as safe-haven bids unwound and USD firmed

  • US Dollar Index (DXY): Up +66 bps to 102.91 | Rebounded cleanly toward 103

  • Bitcoin: Up +1.07% to $74,581.00 | Stabilized alongside risk appetite

INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS & MARKET STRUCTURE (CALLAHAN DESK VIEW)

  • Floor Activity & Institutional Skews (5/10 Activity):


    • Both Asset Managers (LOs) and Hedge Funds (HFs) finished as net buyers, driven by a steady, healthy re-risking across semiconductors.

    • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is knocking directly on the door of its 200-day moving average following multi-day momentum recovery.

  • The "Blank Slate" Consensus Landscape:


    • Aside from broadly constructive sentiment toward balance-sheet-rich Hyperscalers, institutional consensus has fractured regarding where we stand in the AI/semi cycle, what is priced in, and whether this advance represents a bear-market bounce or the start of a durable year-end rally.

    • High Dispersion: Stock selection is returning across Software (notably Cyber and Data Infrastructure), while Internet names have turned squeezy and volatile.

    • After-Hours Catalyst: Nvidia (NVDA) traded down -3% after hours on fresh negative headlines, testing semiconductor follow-through into Thursday's open.

DERIVATIVES SURFACE & TACTICAL OPTIONS FLOWS

  • Term Structure Normalization & Dealer Gamma:


    • Front-end implied volatility dropped sharply and put skew flattened, returning the volatility curve to normal contango.

    • With nearly the entire post-election panic retraced, the desk views SPY December call spreads as one of the most attractive structures on the board, offering upside leverage as spot approaches peak positive dealer gamma near 7,800.

  • Notable Institutional Index Flow:


    • A Goldman Sachs client sold 111,000 contracts of the SPY 18Dec 810 Calls to roll in and down into 28,000 contracts of the SPY 4Dec 775/800 Call Spreads, shedding $7.7B in gross notional to enter $2.1B in notional ($4.2M vega).

  • Thematic Sector Downside (Consumer Staples):


    • The derivatives desk favors positioning for downside in Consumer Staples (XLP), citing stretched valuations and sluggish underlying growth following its recent defensive outperformance.

    • Institutional clients actively executed bearish structures: buying 8,000 contracts of the XLP Nov 89 Puts outright and 10,000 contracts of the XLP Dec 85 Puts.