Voters and traders are gearing up for the final televised presidential debate this evening in the US. Following a messy and chaotic first event, where trump was criticised for his unprofessional demeanour, the second event was cancelled as trump refused to take part in a remote event. Instead, Trump and Biden held separate, televised Town Hall events where they rallied their supporters. The two candidates will now face off for the final time in a televised, 90-minute event at the University of Nashville in Tennessee.
Key Pollster Highlights Trump's "Hidden" Support
While the majority of national polls continue show Biden maintaining a roughly 10 point lead over trump, the latest polling in the key swing states shows that the competition might be much more even than many think. The latest data shows that over 37 million votes have now been cast. Interestingly, Robert Cahaly, the pollster who famously predicted Trump’s surprise win against Hilary Clinton in 2016 is now forecasting that “hidden” support for Trump among the electorate could push him into a second term. Cahaly describes these supporters as “quiet voters” who don’t participate in polls or try to conceal their support for trump to avoid any backlash. Speaking with TV journalists this week, Cahaly said 'I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is.'
Pressure on Trump
There will be a great deal of pressure on Trump to deliver a more considered and presidential performance tonight, following the mass criticism he received last time around. Initial polls conducted after the first events showed that Trump lost support in key swing states as a result of his performance and so tonight will be about redemption for Trump. A solid performance could persuade undecided voters as well as encourage those “hidden” supporters whereas another messy, unprofessional performance could write his re-election chances off.
However, if trump does decide to engage on a serious level this evening he might run into difficulty. Three of the six policy areas set out for debate include race in America, COVID-19 and climate change, areas where Trump has traditionally been on the opposite side of public consensus.
With Biden’s perceived chances of winning increasing, the Dollar is coming under increasing pressure. Should polls favour Biden again in the wake of tonight’s events, we can expect this theme to continue heading into the election date next month.
From a technical viewpoint. The Dollar Index failed at the test of the 93.81 level, capped by the bearish trend line from 2020 highs and has now traded back down to the 92.62 level. Should price slip below here, the next support to watch is the 2020 lows at 91.74.
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