Key Points From This Week
Trump Approves Transition Process
Traders (and US citizens alike) were finally granted some clarity around the election outcome this week with Trump allowing the GSA to begin the transition process to the Biden administration. While still claiming foul play, Trump gave the order which means that the market can now focus on Biden being sworn in on January 20th and the expectations that Biden will look to quickly announce a new stimulus package.
Gold Collapses On Vaccine Optimism
Gold prices broke down to their lowest level s since early July this week as safe haven flows evaporated in response to the building optimism around COVID vaccine news. With several firms now pushing ahead for regulatory approval on their drugs, and governments in the US and UK planning to start rolling them out ahead of year end, markets have been caught in a wave of risk on flows this week.
UK Announces New Lockdown Measures
The UK government has announced the new lockdown measures which will take effect as of December 2nd when the current, nationwide, lockdown ends. The UK will move back into a tiered system with the highest level, tier 3, being the same as the current lockdown. So far, the capital London is expected to go into tier 2, which means that some mixing will be allowed and some hospitality venues will re-open though there have been warnings this could change before Christmas.
Key Events Next Week
The OPEC meeting next week will be a key determinant of oil prices throughout the end of the year and early into next year. With the current production cuts due to end on January 2021, the market is widely expecting the cartel to at least announce an extension of the cuts through Q1 as the world awaits the various vaccines to begin their work which should then help lift oil demand once again as economies return to normal.
RBA December Meeting
At the upcoming RBA meeting next week no further changes are expected following the action in November. Instead, the RBA is likely to reiterate its message of caution and reaffirm its willingness to do more if necessary.
The US labour reports will be closely watched next week. Following the 638k print in October, the market is looking for just a 520k print this time around, which would reflect a severe loss of momentum in the recovery and put further pressure on the Fed.
Keep An Eye On
As the final month of the UK’s transition phase begins, the government has still yet to strike a deal with the EU regarding the future of trade. With the BOE and many big market names warning over the dangers of failing to agree a deal, expect headlines to take on more importance and exert more impact on UK and EU currencies and markets.
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