USD Slips as ECB's Hawkish Rate Cut Dominates Headlines

The US Dollar took a hit on Thursday, dipping as market players digested the European Central Bank's widely anticipated decision to slice its policy rate by 25 basis points. Despite the rate cut, the ECB maintained a hawkish stance by refraining from signaling further reductions, marking the first cut since its post-pandemic tightening spree, thanks to the progress in disinflation.
The EUR/USD daily chart indicates a bullish reversal following a pullback. After touching the upper boundary of a descending channel, the pair has resumed its upward movement, bracing for a retest of the 1.09 horizontal resistance level. A potential breakout could be significant, as this would signify a completed initial test of the 1.09 level and a subsequent bearish pullback, suggesting buyers are serious about pushing the price towards fresh local highs. The RSI is also trending higher, reinforcing the bullish momentum. If the pair sustains above the 1.0900 mark, the next target could be the upper boundary of the channel near 1.1100:

On the U.S. economic landscape, traders were busy juggling the ECB news with a flurry of domestic data releases ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. The latest US jobless claims figures added to the market's mixed signals: initial claims rose from 221K to 229K, while continuing claims slightly increased from 1790K to 1792K. This comes on the heels of Wednesday’s robust ISM Services PMI figures, which starkly contrasted with Monday's lackluster Manufacturing data.
In addition, the Challenger Job Cuts report for May is expected to provide more clarity on labor market trends. The Goods Trade Balance for April showed a marginal improvement, with the deficit narrowing to $99.2 billion from March's $99.4 billion. However, the broader Goods and Services deficit widened from $68.6 billion to $74.6 billion. First-quarter Nonfarm Productivity edged up by just 0.2%, lagging behind the previous quarter's 0.3% growth.
Market participants are keenly observing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next moves. According to interest rate derivatives, there's a 31.5% probability that rates will hold steady in September, contrasted with a 57% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut and an 11.3% chance of a deeper 50 basis point cut. Any rate hike appears off the table for now, with futures markets fully pricing in no change for the June 12 meeting.
Across the pond, the Pound Sterling hovered near a two-month high, just shy of the 1.2800 mark against the USD during Thursday's New York session. The strength of GBP/USD is attributed to the USD's weakness amidst speculation that the Fed might commence rate cuts in September.
The UK's economic docket remains relatively sparse this week. However, investors are gearing up for next week's Employment data for the February-April period and April's GDP figures, which are expected to heavily influence market expectations regarding the Bank of England's rate cut trajectory. Current sentiment anticipates two rate cuts from the BoE this year, potentially kicking off the easing cycle at the August meeting.
The GBP/USD daily chart shows the pair encountering significant resistance around the 1.2800 level, a key medium-term barrier. Despite the recent upward trend, the price action suggests consolidation just below this resistance, presenting a risk of a potential bullish breakout. The ascending channel support remains intact, hinting at underlying bullish momentum. A successful breakout above the 1.2800 resistance could open the door for further gains towards the 1.2900 mark:

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