Asexpected, US equities extend their pullback tomore comfortable buying levels. After the red session on Wednesday, S&P500futures continued their decline on Thursday, erasing 0.5% at the time ofwriting. Nasdaq futures meanwhile, declined more aggressively, losing more than1%. European stock indices have made a leap down, losses exceed 1.5% as thesituation with the virus deteriorates, requiring more and more stringentmeasures.

Mixed reportingby banks in the US, fading of remaining hopes for any kind of stimulus packagefor the US economy ahead of the elections, the stubbornness of the virus and alack of news on vaccine testing contributed to the sell-off in the market. Evenwith Biden's lead, skepticism about the veracity and reliability of the pollsis justified given the surprising outcome of elections in 2016.

Nevertheless, ifTrump manages to overcome the current deficit in the polls (as much as 10points) and win the election, this will be the largest outsider victory sincethe Second World War:

Source:Deutsche Bank

Simply put, froma historical perspective, Trump's lag is significant and suggests that theprobability of the incumbent’s win is not so high.

Actually, this is whythe markets feel good, perhaps focusing not just on Biden's victory, but on a DemocraticSweep - the presidency plus getting a majority in both houses of the Congress.However, this week, the likelihood of such an outcome has stabilized after asharp rise in late September - early November:

AsI wrote earlier , a healthy correction wasnecessary in order to focus on further rally as the deviation from the uptrendin SPX became more and more extreme (price - 200-DMA difference). Now, when thedistance is shrinking and favorable prospects remain in place due to the highchances of Democrats, the level of 3440-3450 on the index looks an attractivearea for long positions.